It is doubling in less than 3 days- 3 days ago the death toll was 85, now it is 205
there is no reason to expect this growth to slow until sometime around the 30th- so it will double 3-4 times between now and then.
After that- hopefully – the number of days between doubling will increase… how much it increases will be critical…
Once the rate of new infections drop, there will be a partial relaxation of the social distancing measures- there will be another surge in infections and restrictions will be tightened again- this will likely happen several times over the year.
Before we get a vaccine it is likely that a large fraction of the population will get this virus, transmissions will decrease because so many have caught it and become immune. The goal here isn’t to reduce the number that get infected, but to space out the infections to a rate that the medical system can handle.
Unfortunately for this first wave, that wasn’t done- so an uncontrolled tsunami will hit the hospital systems soon.
If that is the way it goes then we are looking at 100′s of thousands of fatalities, possibly surpassing a million. Those with long term lung damage will be a greater number.
What will the medical system look like after the next year? What will the economy look like?
I do not know, but many lives and livelihoods will be lost – largely because a group of fools decided a bigoted narcissistic reality show actor was a great choice to lead our nation.
Remember those that wore the red hats- so you can thank them properly when this is over.