Ukraine is losing its war with Russia. In spite of a heroic defense which has inspired the world, the weight of Russian arms and logistics is just too much.
We can celebrate the fact that Putin bit off more than he could chew, and has a bloody nose to prove it, and we should rejoice that finally the West has realized that there is no appeasing him. But the fact remains, he will overrun Ukraine, and do incalculable damage to that nation if he wishes to do so. Unless he decides to withdraw, the final result is a foregone conclusion.

The west is pouring in lots of military aid into the beleaguered state, but most of it will not be readied, delivered or deployed in time. Most of it will be captured or destroyed by the Russians, or wind up rusting away in a warehouse or rail yard somewhere. For example, complex military equipment such as vehicles, aircraft, munitions, even rations, meds, etc must be taken out of mothballs, assembled, shipped in and distributed. The facilities to maintain it must be manned and ready. Then, the Ukrainians must be trained to use it if they are not familiar with the gear. In spite of the Ukrainian army’s fighting spirit, it must be very handicapped in its supply, logistics and materiel. There just isn’t enough time to set up the military and support infrastructure required to mount the defense. Remember, it took the Russians months to gear up for this attack, and even their effort has been shown to be lacking in many respects.

The best we can hope for, realistically, is that this adventure, in the long run, will prove very costly for Putin and the oligarchs, perhaps even devastatingly so. But that will not be a purely military result, and Ukrainian suffering alone will not be enough to make it happen. It will not happen overnight, and the costs for the west will be incalculable–if it even chooses to pay them. And in the meantime, COVID and climate change are still to be reckoned with.

Meanwhile, the Chinese sit back, quietly playing the long game.