Its 1 Sep. Sometime in the middle of this month, sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean will reach its minimum point prior to the fall freeze-up. Right now it appears that the ice cap will shrink to the lowest its ever been (since satellite measurements began in 1979) EXCEPT for the record of 9/14 2012, 3.2 million km^2. 2012 was an extraordinarily low ice year, a real outlier, but since the low ice record has been broken on the average about every 4 or 5 years, we’re about due for another one.

But it looks like it won’t be this September. You will recall my personal estimate for the mid-September 2016 minimum is 4.0 million km^2. As for today, the figures posted 31 August are as follows:

on 8/31
1980s average: 7.41 million km^2
1990s average: 6.68
2000s average: 5.67
2015 3rd lowest 4.44
2007 2nd lowest 4.41
2012 lowest 3.51
2016 4.24

The interactive graph below will give you a better idea of the trends.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Of course, the denialists will only argue that if the record isn’t broken this year, it is clear evidence that Arctic ice must be “recovering”.