Next problem, Starship’s new Block 3 development. SpaceX’s Flight 11 in October 2025 was the last Block 2 flight. Block 3, the redesigned configuration critical to HLS operations, will begin flight testing in 2026. It brings increased propellant capacity, an androgynous docking system, and refueling infrastructure. The booster features an integrated hot-stage truss with the methane tank serving as a primary structural element,and redesigned docking hardware and re-positioned catch pins for the new catching mechanism. These are not minor tweaks. Each introduces potential new failure modes that must be identified and resolved through flight testing.

This happened today. SpaceX rolled out the next generation of Starship to Masseys for testing, but during a routine gas system pressure test as SpaceX calls it, the Liquid Oxygen Tank ruptured. This leaves SpaceX with no Block 3 Boosters to test with after just finishing stacking Booster 18, 16 days ago.

Our timelines keep slipping for various stages of the program. Artemis II has slipped from November 2024 to April 2026. Artemis III’s goal of mid 2027 is so unrealistic NASA recently reopened contracts for Space X competitors to bid on it. Starting practically from scratch now with a new architecture doesn’t bode well for beating China’s 2030 timeline.

Problem number one with our current plan: Space X will need anywhere from 4 to 40 tanker Starships to launch, rendezvous with a propellant depot in low Earth orbit, dock, and transfer hundreds of tons of liquid methane and liquid oxygen to a spacecraft that will then depart for the Moon. In-orbit refueling has never been done and there is no way to know what the boiloff margins are. The actual testing for it is still being developed. The chances of this ambitious operation coming in on time, requiring possibly dozens of launches at a fast tempo and using yet untested methods of in orbit refueling, is very low.

Next problem, Starship’s new Block 3 development. SpaceX’s Flight 11 in October 2025 was the last Block 2 flight. Block 3, the redesigned configuration critical to HLS operations, will begin flight testing in 2026. It brings increased propellant capacity, an androgynous docking system, and refueling infrastructure. The booster features an integrated hot-stage truss with the methane tank serving as a primary structural element, and redesigned docking hardware and re-positioned catch pins for the new catching mechanism. These are not minor tweaks. Each introduces potential new failure modes that must be identified and resolved through flight testing.

Orion’s heat shield for Artemis I had venting problems that caused charring on the spacecraft when it reentered earth’s atmosphere. Efforts to resolve the issue are being tried by making the shield more permeable, but thus far without addressing the underlying venting pathways that can increase internal pressure. If this technical issue isn’t resolved Artemis II could slip a couple years, setting the entire program back.

Spacesuit development is also having bumps in the road and since it is obviously mission critical that could also cause potentially long delays.

Meantime, China is taking a steady approach and is meeting all their timeline targets. Their plan only requires two launches, one for the lander and one for the rest of the mission. NASA switching gears now and not relying on Space X’s ridiculously complex architecture requiring so many launches is probably a good idea, but it will take an all out sprint at this stage to beat China to the Lunar South Pole.