Declining birth rates may seem imminent but it hasn’t actually happened yet. The global population is still increasing, albeit at a more modest rate.. People have stopped having babies because they believe it is the price they must pay for an improved standard of living. They have accepted this because the social, economic and political conditions (and the advances of cheap and effective birth control technology) have made it seem achievable in our lifetimes.

Climate change, armed conflict, political and social dysfunction and economic collapse will soon turn the pendulum back. If the population continues to decline, it will only be because of war, famine, disease, environmental degradation and resource loss. The only question is whether human civilization will eventually reach some sort of equilibrium and stabilize, or whether the decline will simply precipitate a collapse.