The success against Russian targets of US hi-precision guided munitions suggests that Russian jamming and spoofing technology is not as advanced as many analysts (myself included) suspected.

Although some Russian guided munitions seem to be highly effective, their overall accuracy appears to be spotty and inconsistent, as if they have the ability to exploit this technology, but have failed to implement it consistently, or perhaps that they have underestimated their opponent’s countermeasures.

Now, the question arises, are we going to get this lucky with the Chinese, too? There is nothing in the US, Russian or Chinese DNA that suggests one nation or race has better engineers than another, but there are cultural factors that dictate management, training and organizational structures. In WWII, the Germans had excellent radar technology, but they never succeeded in integrating it successfully in their military operations like the Brits did.

People will be studying this Ukraine conflict for a long time. Like the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s, or the Russo-Japanese War before that, it is turning out to be a rehearsal for the future of warfare in the next century.

The American Civil War was the first truly modern conflict, with the introduction of explosive shells, breech-loading artillery, ironclad steam warships, unitary ammunition (ball and propellant combined in one cartridge) and repeating firearms. But even more important were innovations in mobility, communications and logistics; the Americans were the first to use the railroad and the telegraph in warfare. Europeans were well aware of this, and most of the great European powers had observers here taking notes.

Even after the conflict, the Prussians continued their studies here. They followed the American circuses with great interest. These traveling shows could regularly coordinate and move large numbers of men, animals and support material from town to town while adhering to strict schedules. They had developed the art of moving big communities across large distances, setting up bases, putting on a show, and then breaking camp and moving again on short notice, and maintaining that pace indefinitely, while supplying them on the run. No army had successfully done this since the Roman Legions.

Amateurs talk tactics, or strategy. The real masters of war study logistics.