Over the next week and the week after that we will see how effective the social distancing measures were. We can expect the exponential curve becoming less steep-

Some areas will show sharp decline in the rate- others…not so much, like Mississippi where the governor overruled local government that were shutting down to stop the spread.

When no action is taken, and the numbers are so large, the numbers are surprisingly predictable. We could have avoided all this death and economic destruction by taking action 2 months earlier.

This is the cost – the historically high cost- of ignoring the science and showing contempt for the experts. If you think this is too political for this board, then I not so respectfully disagree… this was caused by ignoring the science- the results from doing so were predictable- as the projected numbers in the post above demonstrate.

The administration is now saying 100,000 – 200,000 of your fellow Americans will die if they do a ‘perfect job’- that is the bar they are setting for themselves. That is not the number that have to die given the number of infected now- lets be clear- that is just the number they have determined they are willing to accept.

If, in their incompetence, they manage to blindly get to a total death toll of 99,999 they will pat themselves on the back and call themselves geniuses-

But the number could have been so much lower had we acted when we had the chance.

So these are facts- they are only political because one side of the political spectrum has set themselves in opposition to science- to reality- and is killing people as a result.

Let’s see how that social distancing effort is going….

Where is a tsunami when you need one?

“Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.”