He has carefully cultivated his reputation as impulsive and dangerous, even crazy, so that potential adversaries are afraid to respond. He’s counting on people like China to say to themselves “This guy’s nuts, its better to humor and appease him than risk conflict, there’s no telling what he’ll do.” Sooner or later this policy fails when someone calls his bluff.

The ultimate cause of this breakdown is that Trump is a bully, he is convinced all his adversaries are cowards and weak, he mistakes prudence for fear and he is convinced of his own exceptionalism. His contempt for others eventually leads to miscalculation. Then, like Hitler, he will find himself gradually being drawn into a morass of his own making, perhaps making some initial gains, but soon finding himself in a war of attrition where he really does not command the long term resources or productive capacity to prevail.

His lack of empathy, his inability to put himself in someone elses shoes, also will contribute to the eventual miscalculation. He finds it difficult to understand that others are also capable of acting irrationally (like foolishly risking a war over Poland for which they are not prepared). Trump’s trade war threats all exhibit this flaw. He hasn’t really thought out the full implications of his tariffs on the global trade balance, or how they might even backfire against American interests, or even benefit his opponents’.

The trade deals he is so determined to dismantle are not the Treaty of Versailles. They may have their flaws, but they were imposed by the US on other, weaker countries from a position of overwhelming strength, presumably because we felt they benefited us. It may be a mistake to act as if we were coerced into them because we were foolish and lazy. Every economic concession America has ever made has had strings attached; strings that tied political or military advantages to us in the long run. The Marshall Plan was not instituted because we were nice guys. That is what chess masters do, they trade pieces for position, and good positions for stronger ones.

It could even be argued Trump’s bromance with Putin is an attempt to replicate the Hitler-Stalin pact, an attempt to temporarily outflank his perceived long-term rival, China. Hitler really wanted to occupy Eastern Europe and Western Russia. He never wanted war to the death with France and Britain, and certainly not with the US. Its way too easy to see the historical parallels, especially if you are looking far too hard for them and much too eager to find them. We can fool ourselves searching for patterns that may not actually exist. But having said that, it still doesn’t mean they aren’t there at all in some form.

Hitler’s total contempt and lack of empathy for others led him to miscalculate how they would react when provoked. Sound familiar? History may not exactly repeat itself, but when you have similar personalities interacting in similar environments you will inevitably generate similar results. Except this time, we’re the fascists.

Of course, its not impossible that he might initiate some non-nuclear action or strategy that will provoke an enemy to launch THEIR nukes. For example; “The Syrians are using poison gas in their attack on that rebel stronghold. I told them there would be consequences. Execute Plan 41: Launch a full conventional air and missile strike against the Russian naval base on the Mediterranean as a retaliation.”

And of course, in the event of a melee that might erupt somewhere (like in the S China Sea) a sudden and unexpected event (like someone losing a capital ship) might trigger the other side launching the first nuke by accident. You can count on the second one being fired on purpose, no matter who does it. I am much more afraid of tactical nukes than I am of strategic ones. There are many more opportunities for something to go wrong.

Both the US and the Russians (and the Israelis) have accidentally shot down civilian airliners, (the Russians also shot one down on purpose!). If that can happen because of the decision of some trigger-happy local commander, then anything can happen. The only way a President could avoid that type of accident would be to make sure that type of situation is avoided in the first place. Trump doesn’t strike me as the kind of person who thinks that far ahead, and he does strike me as the kind of person who will do anything to save face and avoid looking weak.

In his mind he isn’t a loser if there is no one left alive to witness his failure.

Hitler’s last victims were his dog and Eva Braun, if given the chance, Trump’s final act of madness could kill far more than all of WWII.