Trump has already bombarded Syria in response to a gas attack. Obviously, that has not deterred the Russians and Syrians from using chemical weapons again–in a tactical situation where they clearly had no compelling military reason to do so. They are winning, or at least, acting like they believe they are winning.

Trump has now put himself in a position that he must do it AGAIN (initiate hostilities) or come across as losing his nerve. And he has to make that decision right after he has announced he is pulling out of Syria, and when our Turkish and Iraqi allies are quarreling with us and our Kurdish friends, and when he has been rattling sabers against Iran.

I think he has lost control of the situation. The Russians/Syrians/Iranians are obviously calling his bluff, and its no coincidence both the Saudis and Israelis are bogged down in fighting on their borders. Whether or not the US forces in the area are strong enough to prevail in expanded hostilities remains to be seen, as is our ability to respond to any further escalation by the bad guys, but it is clear the other side isn’t afraid to test us. I suspect they are ready. And if we refuse to do something, it looks like we are wimping out.

Trump will try to blame it all on Obama for backing down in a similar scenario five years ago, and I must admit he does have a point. But that was then, this is now, and Trump has done nothing since that time to improve our situation there. He can no longer blame Obama; a lot of time was wasted and nothing was done to improve our position. In fact, now we have forces there which would be vulnerable to counterattack or to being isolated, cut off and captured. Our enemies have used the time wisely, consolidating their position and mopping up rebel forces…we no longer have any good reason to be fighting there. I think the Russians are setting a trap.

Meanwhile, Korea and the S China Sea are still on the back burner, simmering to a slow boil, as are our trade and tariff wars. But at least, the Wall and the National Guard will protect us from an invasion from Mexico. Our enemies abroad have been watching Trump for a year now and they have a good idea how he reacts to genuine threats. They are no longer scared by his bluster, they know the man is a fraud.

You know, I agree there are very good reasons for Trump to take a strong position in overseas disputes–both economic and military. But nobody believes him any more. So far he seems to be mostly speaking loudly and carrying a limp stick.