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Home » CurrentEvents

The China bubble? March 15, 2012 6:21 pm TB

Here.

Last year Wuhan municipality spent $22 billion on infrastructure and housing projects although its tax revenues were only one-fifth of that amount. The bank loans were made to special investment corporations and do not appear on the city’s books. The only collateral the banks have is city-owned land, and that is not a reliable asset in current circumstances.

Land in Wuhan has tripled in price during the property boom, and could quickly fall back to the old price or below if confidence in the city’s future were to falter. That is quite likely to happen, since Wuhan’s housing stock is already so overbuilt that it would take eight years to clear even the existing overhang of unsold apartments at the current rate of purchase, and never mind all the new stuff.

Multiply the Wuhan example by hundreds of other municipal authorities that are also borrowing billions to finance a similar “dash for growth,” and you have a financial situation as volatile as the “sub-prime mortgage” scam that brought the U.S. economy to its knees. Except that when the Chinese property boom implodes, it may bring the whole world economy to its knees.

  • Interesting article. Another global recession would really hurt the US recovery right now. If it happened before Nov ... by BuckGalaxy 2012-03-16 19:37:46
    • I suspect Europe will implode before China does. by TB 2012-03-16 19:59:41
    • Acres and acres of factory space just waiting for occupancy. Several hundred acres. That's what a friend of mine ... by bowser 2012-03-15 21:45:22
      • Two words: Screw China. I'm fairly confident the world could manage economically without them, and I think they're ... by VelociraptorBlade 2012-03-15 19:09:31

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