Maliki and Iran view getting the US out as a major milestone. The Arab Sunni world sees it as the start of round 2. Iran thinks they can hold a Shi'a Iraq together, good luck to them. Several of the richest states in the world are a stones throw away, and they simply will not stand for a more powerful Iran, and the rise of a greater Shi'a state.
I've said this before. The streets of Iraq will flow red with blood before this is done. We will see a Proxy War between Iran and Saudi Arabia play out on the streets of Iraq. The surge has something to do with quelling the violence in Iraq, but mainly it was that the re-positioning had largely completed- the mixed neighborhoods and cities were 'cleansed', the battle lines are drawn, and everyone there knows whose throat they're going to leap for as soon as the americans are gone.
For the sake of everyone involved, all we can do is stay there, indefinitely, and pray that the lions share of our military power is enough to keep the dogs apart. Because if these dogs really decide to have it out now, after 1500 years of bitter hatred, Money will not stand in the way. Watch Iranian missiles pummel Saudi Refineries, and Saudi F-15's rain the best bombs money can buy down on the Iranian oil fields, while the global economy goes up in a black cloud.
And as I said, don't expect the Turks and the Kurds not to take advantage of the unrest to settle their ancient scores. Nor China and India to sit quietly by as their dreams for a 1st world future go up in smoke.
Bush screwed us (and the world) far, far deeper than I suspect any of us understands. It will be years before we know how far down this rabbit hole goes.
If Barack does not know this, then he is a bigger fool than I feared. If he knows this, and has played the American public (like I suspect he has), then he's going to make Hillary look like a sweet simpleton. HopeAndChange, ChangeAndHope indeed!
I was bitterly against this war, and I believe I successfully argued 5/6 years ago what is now known as true: The intelligence was bad, the case was weak, Iraq was no threat and had naught to do with terrorism. But now I desperately hope we stay there, no matter what the cost... even if just to spare the millions of innocents who very well might die.