I think the economy has been gaining momentum for awhile now. Housing prices are going up and construction jobs are coming back. The unemployment rate is hovering but the number of jobs added is going up, albeit slowly. Consumer confidence is rising.
I think no matter who’s elected, the momentum can’t be easily reversed. After 4 years of hand wringing over Obamacare, I doubt businesses will delay critical decisions for another election cycle. The recovery will be slower but eventually the people being mugged to pay for Obamacare will get used to it and we’ll move on to a new status quo.
If Romney gets in we’ll see lower taxes, less red tape, more conventional domestic energy development, and an attempt to repeal Obamacare. Also the economy would be stewarded by a successful businessman.
Obama pretty much has blown his load when it comes to turning the recession around. Who knows, maybe it will be enough but whatever he does next will be more of the same. If Obama is reelected, Obamacare will be carried out. Little will be done to lower healthcare costs. It’s about getting everyone into a broken system. The Affordable Care Act is a misnomer. Healthcare won’t become affordable. Care will be given to those who can’t or won’t pay their own way. All “made affordable” by tax hikes, penalties, and fees.
Romney is counting on an increase in economic activity to reduce the deficit. According to him, his tax plan will be the stimulus. Unfortunately we haven’t seen the loopholes he says he’ll close. Just about every candidate in the past has championed tax reform- right up to the election. After that- nothing . Other than increases and decreases, the don‘t want to touch it. Simplification and transparency are what people want, not 70,000 pages of rules.
So if it’s Romney, we’ll go back to the old status quo. Business ambition will be let loose. Energy costs will go down. But we don’t know what will happen with the deficit.
If it’s Obama, unemployment will still be a problem but jobs will continue to be added. Obamacare will become accepted. Spending won’t decrease and neither will the deficit, which doesn’t seem to concern him very much.